Hollywood's New Money: How Prediction Markets are Reshaping Oscars Betting
22 September 2026
The buzz around awards season has always captivated Hollywood insiders and armchair critics alike. But increasingly, it's also driving millions of dollars in wagers on prediction markets and sportsbooks. In 2024, the frenzy around the Academy Awards hit new heights, with more than $150 million in bets across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket according to figures published by Variety, a leading media outlet. The Oscar markets are evolving rapidly, with implications for how studios, distributors and media outlets navigate the shifting landscape of Hollywood's new money.
The 2024 Oscars ceremony was scheduled to take place on March 10, but the betting season unofficially kicked off a full nine months prior at the Cannes Film Festival in May, according to a detailed analysis by Deadline. Bookmakers began posting odds for the coveted awards as early as a year before the big night, tracking the ups and downs of various contenders. This long lead time contrasts sharply with the tight turnaround of traditional sports betting, creating a slower burn but also a longer runway for market movement.
Precursor Awards Drive Market Shifts
Precursor awards like the Golden Globes and guild prizes emerge as dominant catalysts for shifting odds and driving trading volume, according to a study by The Hollywood Reporter, a trade publication. Analysts scour the results of major industry events for signals that could predict Oscar winners. Kalshi, one of the leading prediction platforms for Oscar contracts, saw its odds for certain categories jump after notable Golden Globe wins, indicating the extent to which these precursor voting bodies can move the needle.
The scale of money flowing through Oscar markets has grown substantially in recent years. By March 2024, more than $90 million had exchanged hands in Oscars-related wagers through prediction markets, reflecting a sharp increase in the public's appetite for entertainment betting, the Los Angeles Times reported. This development reflects the rise of bettors keen to use alternate wagering markets.
Traditional Sportsbooks Join the Action
While prediction markets have a reputation for having broader appeal, traditional sportsbooks are not being left behind. Commenting on the rise of Oscars gambling, New Jersey-based sportsbook DraftKings noted that a significant portion of their action came on the most prestigious categories: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and their supporting counterparts, their senior executive Johnny Avello told CNBC. This focus on marquee categories is mirrored by BetMGM, who reported that Best Picture was their most-bet Oscar category, tallying twice as many tickets as the next nearest group, Best Actor, per an analysis of BetMGM data.
Predicting what drives betting volumes on Oscar markets is tricky, but a few clear patterns emerge. The Los Angeles Times cited an obscure budget animated movie that had been in the lead for much of the betting season but imploded in the days before the awards, costing bettors millions. Conversely, some analysts have attributed the inclusion of politics in Oscar awards as a driver, with a 2024 winner winning 30% more in bets, controlled for other factors, than the 2017 winner according to The Hollywood Reporter.
The financial stakes are not lost on Hollywood itself. Among insiders, the shifting odds reported on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly being seen as real-time market research on the public's pulse. Studios and advertising agencies are keeping a close eye on the action to gauge awareness and momentum for their releases, as media coverage of these new betting markets draws in new audiences, Variety reported. For major entertainment outlets, tying Oscar betting to media properties is a key strategy to plug new and trending content to wider audiences.
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Beyond the Oscars
The expansion of betting interest also extends beyond the Oscars to other major awards shows. "Increasingly, Emmys, Golden Globes, and Cannes are also seeing significant prediction market activity," notes Jeff Rosenthal, a senior editor at The Wrap, a leisure industry publisher. "We're seeing bettors take a keen interest in a range of award events." Platforms like Kalshi, The New York Post reported, offer odds on a diverse range of Hollywood award categories, from drama to reality TV.
As the Oscars betting markets continue to surge, the dynamics are rapidly evolving - and not just in terms of dollars and cents. "We're increasingly seeing mainstream cultural figures and influencers getting involved in Oscars betting," noted Tina Meronk, a columnist for Variety. "It's becoming more than just a niche, it's become mainstream."
The Bigger Picture
The entertainment betting trend may seem like a new phenomenon to the broader public, but it's a story of growth that's been quietly playing out inline with the rise of daytime trading, options futures, and the like in common markets. "In a lot of ways, the growth of Oscars betting is an equal-out of a lot of trends that have been playing out in mainstream markets for longer than bettors have been active in entertainment," says John Sanders, a veteran analyst at Bloomberg. "It's a reflection of the increasing public appetite for relevance and predictability - and it's an opportunity that has long been hard to isolate in markets, precisely because of the subjectivity involved in what makes a good film - and particularly, what film will win a given award."
Looking ahead, it remains to be seen how far the trend will go. However, with an increasing public appetite for entertainment-based prediction markets, and a Hollywood machine that is embracing the opportunity, analysts from The Information to Variety expect to see sustained growth from both ends of the pipeline.
One thing is for sure, though. As WagerWire's Drew Chenoweth says, "With Hollywood mega-million wagers and the Oscars exciting wagerers, it's an exciting time for bettors and the industry alike. And we're still just getting started."